« 07/05/2024 07/07/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat July 6th, 2024

Download as PDF

Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Remember the Fear - 9/2 2 Tallapoosa - 3/1 3 Red Rizzler - 2/1

6-REMEMBER THE FEAR drops and turns back in distance. He hasn’t shown much so far but this will be the easiest field he ever met. Expecting to see massive improvement. 2-TALLAPOOSA finished 24 lengths off the winner in last but still managed to beat a rival. Drops to a far better level. Races for the top barn and gets the top rider in the irons. Pay attention. 3-RED RIZZLER beat only one in last but that race was against somewhat better and it was contested on turf. His previous start on dirt was considerably better. The move to the hot apprentice rider should help his chances. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:38 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Eternally Grateful - 4/1 5 Khozan's Valentine - 6/1 6 Absolute Chaos - 7/2

3-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has been highly competitive in recent sprints on a tougher circuit. He finished out of the money only once in his last 12 starts and he was meeting $140,000 allowance company in a route in that event. He probably won’t be sent to the lead but he should be racing right off it. Can take over late. 5-KHOZAN’S VALENTINE ships up after a game victory at Fanduel in last. That was his first race since August and his first for this barn. However, he has raced here before and been successful. Might be a bit quicker than top choice. Could try to lead throughout. 6-ABSOLUTE CHAOS is probably the quickest member of this field. He tired in his local debut, which was also his first start for this barn but he was in against some highly accomplished rivals. Fits this spot far better.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:06 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Cowboys Dream - 5/1 3 Millard's Smile - 2/1 5 Mister Charming - 8/1

Can’t help but think that this race will set up for a closer. There are a few in here that figure to be competitive late but have to go with 2-COWBOY’S DREAM. He needed his last, his first race of the year. He made a big middle move but flattened out late. However, he should be better prepared to get the distance after that race. 3-MILLARD’S SMILE beat similar two races back and was second in last versus the same kind of company. It helps that his stablemate Blurt will ensure quick early fractions. His main knock is that he’s had only one drill since his last race on April 28th. Every so often 5-MISTER CHARMING will tease. He did in last when he finished second, only a head back. But he’s had 64 races and managed to win only three. Would have a hard time leaving him out of vertical gimmicks but would also have a hard time projecting him to win.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:34 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Faccia Bella - 8/5 6 Graceleadsushome - 4/1 2 Frankel Baby - 9/2 4 Graytana - 8/1

1-FACCIA BELLA barely lost her local debut. She trailed the field early but flew late and simply ran out of real estate. The extra sixteenth mile should definitely help her chances as well as the probable heated pace ahead of her. 6-GRACELEADSUSHOME turns back in distance which has been a profitable angle for this barn. She’s unlikely to show much speed but could match strides with top choice late. 2-FRANKEL BABY and 4-GRAYTANA could duel for the lead and Diamonds Joy could join them briefly.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:02 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Jolie Ruler - 5/2 6 Suporb - 4/1 4 Play Twenty - 5/1

8-JOLIE RULER dominated as the odds-on favorite when she returned from Fanduel. That was arguably a tougher field than the one she faces today. Useful speed will allow her to stalk what promises to be a quick pace. She should be able to hit the gas late and pass the early leaders. 6-SUPORB just missed in last after beating a similar field in her previous start. She’ll once again be under intense pressure throughout but she’s switching back to the apprentice rider that was aboard for her win in the previous start. The seven-pound weight allowance can make all the difference. 4-PLAY TWENTY lost all chance in last when she didn’t get out of the gate alertly. She was favored in her last four, winning once. She’ll probably compete for the lead if she fires.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Miss River Rat - 9/5 6 All About Me - 2/1 2 Lotta Roses - 15/1

Not in love with 4-MISS RIVER RAT but she is probably the one to beat. Fresh off a dirt sprint victory against state breds, she’ll be seeking to unleash her best effort yet on turf. She didn’t beat a rival in her lone turf route attempt but this appears to be a far easier field. Have to appreciate her barn and rider. 6-ALL ABOUT ME seems like the main competition. On paper she looks like the lone speed but she’s probably going to be joined on the front end by some of the stretching out sprinters. But sharp apprentice rider in her irons certainly enhances her chances. 2-LOTTA ROSES could be the sleeper. She has a pair of turf wins at the distance. She’ll be tracking the pace. Might grab a share late.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Pats Property - 5/2 7 Readthecliffnotes - 3/1 4 Hard to Fathom - 8/1

Very nice race. Have to give the nod to 1-PAT’S PROPERTY. He seems the quickest member of this field. This could very well be the easiest field he has met since his maiden victory. Can lead every step of the way. 7-READTHECLIFFNOTES is back on his preferred surface and at his favorite distance, while racing at his favorite track. He’s been victorious in 10 of 18 local races. It is possible that he’ll try for the lead but others in here are quicker and he’ll most likely be tracking the early pace. 4-HARD TO FATHOM could get the trip. He was barely beaten in his last start. The pace of this race could be ideal. He could run past them all in the stretch.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:26 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 First Masamune - 3/1 2 Flying Samurai - 9/2 3 Diamond Dave - 7/2

9-FIRST MASAMUNE took the lad late in last but wasn’t able to sustain that bid and got caught late while still maintaining a sizable lead over the third-place finisher. Should get a decent pace to run at again. If he gets to the lead late in this one, he could keep it through the finish. 2-FLYING SAMURAI comes off his best race of the year. He fought for the lead from the start and just failed to last. When he’s right, he doesn’t back down from challengers. Maybe he’ll shake loose in this one. 3-DIAMOND DAVE makes his first start of the year. His barn is mired in a tough meet and runners from the barn often need a race or two but he has a decent history of running well fresh. The class drop certainly helps.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 5:54 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
12 Coach Jimi D - 9/2 4 Code Name - 8/1 2 Monsteronthemidway - 7/2 5 Even the Wind - 12/1

12-COACH JIMMMY D is entered for main track only but he looks like a standout in case this race does get moved to the main track. He broke his maiden by seven in his local debut and held on well to finish second in his first start versus winners. 4-CODE NAME stretches out. He appears to be far quicker than any of his rivals. He has tired late in all his races other than his maiden win but he might be able to build a commanding lead with out much effort and have plenty left to hold off those coming on late. 2-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY is always tough. He narrowly lost last after winning his previous two starts. Not sure the pace will be to his liking but he’s sharp enough to do it all on his own. 5-EVEN THE WIND flies late. Recent grad races for the top turf barn. Could make it two in a row.