Handicapper Tips & Picks

Starts off the card with the juveniles and added access for players to get a look at the horses and the board. That could be key with #2 ROGUE DIAMOND listed as the 5-2 ML favorite and while in capable hands with a steady worktab, she will give up experience as well as maturity as a June foal and recently turned 2yo. In addition she was entered earlier this month at Ellis in a $20k MCL event – reason for scratch Private Vet Illness.

Her stablemate #5 ELIZA VANCE has the benefit of experience and to move up off the debut experience after breaking SLOG, TROUBLE_S making a WIDE MOVE and should appreciate the slight stretch out in ground. She also has maturity on her side coming back from the debut wo month ago to project further improvement.

#3 NOTIPTONI could receive attention off the figures and finishing positions though has potentially hit a ceiling from a visual standpoint could require DROP. Upside sits with both second time starters, #4 SHE STOPPED SHORT and #6 REIMAGINE both appeared to need the race as a PREP and like ELIZA VANCE the STRETCH out in distance.

M. Perez has #7 OMAHA STAMP one that worked 10.1 in June has some run though could require a start and more ground, though the outside post is beneficial with her longer frame. The rail could be tricky for #1 MARGARITA BLUEBIRD another that worked 10.1 could also benefit from the start and even turf. 

#8 ISABELLA’S BEAUTY has the slight edge over #1 SANITARIUM returning from the 8/4 common race back for a second start. SANITARIUM moves to the rail and was off a beat slow from the gate before making a RUSH and WIDE MOVE lacking NO_FINISH stick late. ISABELLA’S BEAUTY moves to the outside and further upgrade as she was forced to RUSH X_FLOW into the race from the rail in that common event. Would also keep #5 JACQUEK on the radar; while she finished well behind the other two she showed run in spots and off the visuals would not be surprised if we have not seen her best yet.

Class wise #4 IRISH SPARK steps back to the MSW level, though finds a lateral change in par from the recent MCL events where she has held her own. Her races from earlier this season under similar conditions to today held her own and notable X_BIAS upgrade from 6/15 and efforts similar to #6 I DID THE MATH one that has remained at this level though steps back up on this circuit/purse.

#7 THE LAST THRILL finds some subtle changes here and could present intent in this spot. She returns with C. Emigh aboard and with the 42-day freshening. The rider change could be key as she had had some GATE issues in the past and an assertive, experienced journeyman rider aboard today might be the trick.

Trip is key for #4 BOURBON LIFE though should hold some price compensation in this event. He will return to the grass and fits on the surface, a versatile type as well as 35-day freshening after running back-to-back on shorter rest this year. J. Felix also remains aboard with the return to the grass the intent back on 6/29 when compromised C_FLOW and stepped up with the B_ OptixGRADE making a WIDE CLOSE on 7/18. All that is noted and while subtle could present the edge in class to #5 EVEN THE WIND one that brings in similar form and runstyle.

If those two are to be beat it will be on the front end with early speed and #7 ALL CHOKED UP could have that front end edge. While he is not “lone speed” and should have some company, a more assertive ride should be in play as they attempted to rate off a Very Slow early and late pace three weeks ago and needs the aggression shown back in June to separate and run their best race at this surface/distance. 

The analysis starts with #3 MALIGATOR one that takes a significant drop in class looking for a belated win going back to June of last year for that most recent “1” in the form and similar for the barn that overdue to get their photo taken. The change in class and intent gives them every opportunity, though also must consider trip as they have the tendency to SLOG and make a late run.

Their stablemate #1 MON AMI FUZZIE wheels back from the 8/4 common as one that did not have the most ideal TACTIC- on the day and looking at the consistent B- OptixGRADE the figure pattern shows an “every other” with positive progression on cycle here. From that common race, inclined to give #4 Z U SOON a longshot look returning to make a second start of the season and wheeling right back from the long layoff return earlier this month. Going back to 8/4, they were dismissed off the 6-1 ML, a sign of a PREP and in running should have plenty of fitness forced to DUEL X_FLOW from the rail.

Looking at the Plot, Z U SOON holds a similar if not preferred Plot position and shape in Quad I with both #6 ALPINE GHOST and #7 LAKE MILLS in a similar spot and likely shorter of the group.

DiZeo also returns with a pair including #5 PERFECT WAGER from that 8/4 common event when he showed more run than the line and finish suggests making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the SLOG, a noted bad habit for this horse. A further upgrade to #2 HATCHET CREEK with the front wrap removal, something to look for out in the paddock. 

#4 MAQAMAT would not be eligible for this condition if not for the late DQ due to a positive test from the 5/26 win. His current form fits on par and while eligible, they might as well continue to take advantage of the conditions given. MAQAMAT does not look to be any secret in this race though preferred over #6 CHARLIE LIGHTNING one that has brings in solid form and early speed, though has been flattered by softer fractions and could find some contention (Sun) here.

#1 RISKY BOY could land and return in the right time, place and value. His efforts from earlier this season fit on par and similar for the 6/23 win and speed figure. Since that race he was overmatched in July and returns to meet friends today. #2 IDEA MAN also has held his form this season and should continue to do so today though notable as they are still looking for their first win on the year are racing above condition for this race. #7 JOLIE RULER also out of condition slightly taking on males.

The analysis starts with #2 COWBOY JUSTICE one that despite the layoff projects to be favored and while they will give up recency they fit at this level and class relief. That is key as this one not only has the layoff but will also look for their first local win and first win as an older runner though did race against tougher in stakes or N2 allowance on the KY circuit.

#6 NEW YEAR SURPRISE has some back class in his own right and returns with fitness in this second start back off the long layoff. He will find a rider change to J. Felix in hot hands as well as some upside present from the 8/4 trip making a WIDE RUSH in to a Very Fast early pace and given some excuse despite the NO_FINISH.

#5 REALIGNMENT does not hold the back class as the others though will trade for upside in his third start. While there are some hurdles facing older, established rivals, they presented as a TURF runner breaking their maiden on debut and moved up number wise with the shift to grass last month at Ellis. 

Trainer H. Robertson appears to hold a strong hand in this race not just with ML favorite #4 MYSTIC STORM but with #1 SWEET CRYSTAL one that should have a pace advantage in this race and a big threat to take this field gate-to-wire. She has the rail draw and first call speed looking at the Plot to create separation on the other Quad I runner, #7 TOP LOOK and could be gone under A. Santos. That would also give her the jump on MYSTIC STORM one that will be looking to stalk-and-pounce and take the first run on the other closer, #3 SHEZA HOOT. 

The complexion of this field with many stretching out and changing surfaces should established a contested, honest early pace and assists #5 FACCIA BELLA one that already appeared logical in this spot. She will return to the two turn distance where she has spent most of her career and transferred her class to the sprints in this current cycle. Her stablemate #6 MISS RIVER RAT has yet to step up in the speed figure or class department though on established current and two-turn form remains in the minor mix.

#1 FLAMMAND will get another mention as a longshot here again. She has some back numbers and class that fit on par and this season has shown progression with each race. She has not need as effective or as much success as her juvenile/sophomore campaign though has had some subtle trips and spots this season creating some subtle trips and forgiveness since returning from the layoff.

In terms of class and speed figures, #3 WILD ABOUT HILARY fits on par. She is still unknown over the surface distance though encouraging to give her another go after the 6/9 try at CBY and added time after working HARD to win back in July, playing a role in the outcome earlier this month. 

#1 POLICY OPTION turned in a winning race (B) for the level three weeks ago and should hold his form and a fit right back here today first off the claim and in the third start off the layoff. #4 SHADY MCGEE was able to get the trip and first run on the day recording the win, though with a similar B OptixGRADE and logical again, though expects to be shorter of the two.

#3 NILES CHANNEL also a fit under today’s conditions and looking to regain his confidence after the EX – EXCUSE taking a legit stumble (TROUBLES+) and NO_PUSH in the July CBY race. The connections return to Hawthorne, a course he has experience over both races against a higher class par/purse than today’s $10k event.

Also from the 8/1 common race, #5 COMEDIC TIMING will look to improve and one that had some intent somewhere as he took action in all the pools including win, early money and holding steady at 9-2 at close from the 8-1 ML.