Handicapper Tips & Picks

While respectfully, #3 ROYAL MENDE should be in the right spot to compete and a reasonable favorite at that, the recent visuals, class drop and pattern of NO_FINISH will look elsewhere especially at the projected shorter number.

#2 GIANNO has some questions on distance (similar with ROYAL MENDE) cutting back today though at the same time should be able to compete following the maiden win and placed reasonable to take on winner with form this season that fits strongly with this field. #4 FRISSON can be upgraded in their second start of the season and on FLOW setting Fast pace while WIDE outside and between horses, not ideal positioning (TACTIC-) overall. He returns with that race under his belt, lateral change in par and rider change to suggest intent.

Worth noting #7 PONCHO ATTACK from the FRISSON common race back on 8/4 and made a CLOSE for show (and GALLOP+) though did have the race FLOW on his side. His stablemate #9 BRUCE ATTACK should handle the TURF from a physical standpoint though has a biggest test with class and must, must get faster to compete. 

#4 WE MISS ARLINGTON should have no excuses today holding a massive edge on class and tactical speed in today’s group. Those factors being obvious will be built into the price and not without a chance to go off shorter than the fair ML suggests.

#5 CHAMPAGNE MIKE could keep the number fair as the likely alternative. He also takes a massive drop and the right move looking to find where he fits. He ran a bang up race on debut (B+) and 76 figure that sits in line with WE MISS ARLINGTON though did not catch a strong field on the day and has been exposed since in allowance company.

#1 STOLICH is not far off those two on his best day and this would be the time for him to pop with a top effort – second start since the barn change and subtle distance change with the added ground from the 5.5f earlier this month. 

#1 ALL IN SYNC fits well in this spot and appears well placed first off the Vanden Berg claim. He comes into this race with better form than what might appear “on paper” given the recent running lines and finishing positions though has been racing against much tougher, considerable higher race par this season and even going back to the layoff return starting off 2023. While he fits and does appear intended for a surface switch back to the turf, he can handle the dirt should that come into play. He has the edge on class and figures over stablemate #6 MCVICKER one that can assist keeping the pace honest and best with the LONE trips back in the first part of the season or with the PERFECT trip as the races came off the turf back in July, something MTO #9 ONASA will be looking for to compete today.

#5 MISTER KELLY will give up recency in the first start back in 341 days though does not return with a class drop as a positive and back to top form for C. Winebaugh and regular rider L. Colon fits right in as a contender and can even present the “speed of the speed” this race and what looks to be a murky puzzle handicapping pace.

O. Mojica will shift from #7 STAR KANOO (one that could find the right group to compete right back) for #8 INTO THE SUNRISE one that wheels right back for this race with the class drop looking for the first win on the year. INTO THE SUNRISE has also been looking for the right level though one that has some back class with his most “recent” win in a higher level N2 OC turf sprint at Saratoga and going back to his juvenile/sophomore season racing in stakes company. 

#3 Z U SOON has improved with each race since the long layoff return on 8/4 and wheeling right back in a week could suggest positive intent. He looked to need (PREP) the return and gained fitness as part of the DUEL X_FLOW something that carried last week with the 10 point figure improvement as progressive OptixGRADE where another move forward could be in the cards with regular rider A. Reyes back aboard.

Looking at the OptixPLOT, there is a Sun Contention though paired with a lower SpeedRate, a scenario that should assist runners in Quad I such as Z U SOON and even morning line favorite #2 ALYANAABI though shifting value of those two to #6 UNCAPTURED PULSE one with form this season and lack of “red” in the Past 3 Runlines.

#5 FIRST MASAMUNE has turned in some of the higher figures and competitive races both around two turns and the 6f distance so no knock there with the change. He will give up some recency after 42-days off, something that could go either way – he could benefit from the freshening and pop with a top effort picking up the very belated win, or the time between starts could suggest he is “over the top” from the racing this season; the board and visuals clues in the paddock will be key in this scenario. 

#1 BLAZE BEAUTY has a longshot look in here. Overall she does hold any edge, though fits with today’s par, a lateral move for the FD races this season and lower par than the allowance races starting off the meet. She held her own on 6/8 over the turf on a WEATHER impacted day with prior and light rain in running making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP and visuals going back to her days suggest she is better at a route of ground. Her Standard form on the Plot sets her in line with #5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN and BLAZE BEAUTY will be much higher of the two on the board.

#2 SURPRISE ME AGAIN does not take as much creativity to get to and the connections are easy to have confidence in. She has not shown progression this season and not enough to compete at the allowance level making this drop reasonable here. The distance change is an unknown though lightly raced and with the change in class could easily take to the conditions.

Her C. Block stablemate #9 DIAMOND’S JOY will also stretch back out and back under the conditions from 7/18 when holding place staying on as the BOS over the main track. All that said, she would not be a “surprise” though no value in the favorite role lacking an edge in this group from speed figures, class and pace with #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNITE sharing a similar front running style drawn to her inside and with J. Felix taking over on #8 CATHOLIC SUE (and coming back from a Very Fast race shape on 8/11) they could be up in the first flight mixing things up and keeping the pace honest. 

The impact of the pace should hold some say on the outcome; looking at the OptixPLOT the Sun Contention is paired with the higher 86 SpeedRate – a test for front runners that includes #5 CATEGORY TEN and #6 MCQUEEN to look for alternatives.

Following the ML, #7 HOPPIN JOHN should have pace to target and make his run though could concede first run on others and based on the shape, the size of the Square indicating closing kick, he does not have an edge over the other closers primarily #4 ATKINS especially if they hold longer odds than #2 GOLD SMOKE.

The Plot is neutral on #1 BOOGIE BODE, tough to knock on pace and in terms of form, class and speed figures he fits on par as he makes his first start off the claim last out at Ellis Park and the connections patiently waiting out their “jail” time (40-days) to make this circuit switch.

Today’s event is a much better spot all around for #1 PARKLAND on this circuit and with the race under his belt for the second off the layoff. He was tasked not only giving up recency though had a higher race par even with the surface switch that played against him more than the conventional dirt. They keep with the intention towards the grass with today’s placement and back in two weeks with a rider change and much softer par that has the where he fits to compete.

Trip wise PARKLAND could work the right trip from the rail. He has enough early speed to make the lead (Standard Q1) though given the complexion of this field, he could stalk inside with a tracking trip with the Surface/Distance position on the Plot, tracking from Quad II – a position and trip similar to #8 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY and projected longer odds of the two.

#6 SAILING SOLO should take up his customary role on the lead (Q1 Square) and the edge over the Circles, #3 LAVENDER EARL and #4 REMEMBER THE MAINE. He should have no excuse with his runstyle, though did not have any excuse with a similar trip and Very Slow early/late pace coming up short on 6/15. Perhaps the layoff was the “excuse” on the day, though they return with another 75-day gap here forced to wait with a couple surface scratches between starts.

The race shape is noted for #7 BATTLE SCARS one that should have pace to target (Q4 Square) and some intent with the class drop. With that said, they will drop off a win and 96-day layoff something that does come with moderate reservations though not overly concerning in for $20k and the meet starting to hit its finale for racehorses. #5 MCMONEY should also have pace to target and the edge on current form of those noted runners as he has remained on the main track, something that carries to #2 STORM’S REFLECTION one that requires and finds price compensation with the class rise.  

Will be interesting how this race is bet as #2 HURTS SO BAD could get attention coming off a win earlier this month and #6 RUSSIAN TO WIN come down from the ML with the change in class, returning to Hawthorne for the connections and back with O. Mojica. That scenario could see #3 RACARINO drift (or hold the ML) and on a progressive race-to-race pattern third off in this spot. The recent finishing position could also see #4 PADDY’S HOUSE overlooked and finding the right value to make their case here. The 7-2 is short though there are things to like as they take a lateral change in race par for this even, though subtle trips and lacking pace, should find a different dynamic here.

All the ML talk to set up #1 TONY’S MORNING LINE one that looks to have some intent returning to Hawthorne with C. Emigh back aboard. They were paired back on 6/15, a race that looks average “on paper” though visually BTL and keying off that effort cam back to win in their next start, the 7/21 race under today’s conditions.

#5 AZOI could hold the edge of the shippers despite exiting the recent MCL events. He has held his form, competitive races at the level with consistent figures that stack up on par. That could present the edge over #6 ANGER RISING and #8 MANDALORIAN given the events those two exit while giving up recency on different paths into this race.

In terms of the local runners, the edge to the 8/8 event for both #3 STREET FEST and #4 LICENSE TO STEAL over the others with races here this season. Tough to make a strong contender case for #2 YOUNG MISCHIEF though is one that can be left in the mix at the longer odds that should give an honest showing in this spot and hold his own in this group.