Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 DON'T WORRY turned in a sneaky good effort on debut with the late CLOSE after a rough SLOG/TROUBLE_S and doing it on their own. They might have been a bit exposed last month at KYD with the circuit switch and return from that race with fitness to the DIRT and class DROP looking to find where they fit. #5 CO HEART should benefit from the STRETCH out from their debut 20-days ago given the visuals showing more than the running line and finishing position suggests with a lot of GALLOP+ past the wire and visuals to IMPROVE. 

A case can be made for many of these lightly raced runners coming in off a start or two including #8 DESPERATE PROPOSAL from an EX - EXCUSE on debut last month given the TACTIC- and adversity making an inside/SAVED MOVE with TROUBLE playing a role in the outcome - an outcome, which was decided on the lead from the open length pacesetting winner, Optical with the field spaced out behind. 

Hawthorne's own #9 J Z'S LAST SCHANCE will step up and stretch out and while she catches a solid field, her maiden score last month stacks up in line with many in this field. She is one that according to the connections always had ability, ability she was unable to show first out despite PRERACE+ visuals she raced GREEN, missing the break (VSLOG) and caught a live L. Rivelli runner called Shezafunkydrummer and productive event overall. 

Looking at the Plot, #4 WIND OF CHANGE could present a pace advantage in this event. He has some hurdles returning from the 103-day layoff and not always the "best" gate horse though does reunite with C. Torres, a rider than has had success in the past and shows intent returning for a tag placed where they can compete. 

This is a tough race lacking a standout and horse to beat, #12 COMMITTEE OF ONE can be played at the right number. He holds a win over this course from the Indian Summer S. (probably not named after the 90's emo band) as a juvenile maiden and has been looking for that belated second win since. He has held his form and figures and upgraded moving off the rail and race shape forced to CLOSE into a Slow early pace at KYD last out. 

#1 ENCLOSURE should look to get back on track here with her main rival #2 FANCY giving up some recency after recording a new top with the BLANKET finish last out in the Groupie Doll. ENCLOSURE presented as one that would benefit from added ground going back to her debut last spring and has moved up with the STRETCH out in distance. She turned in a solid effort off the bench in August at ELP setting a Very Fast pace both early and late extending herself to the wire, though might have over extended herself coming back last month at CD when WARM for the first time and lost ground after chasing a Fast early pace. 

The circuit change and step up to take on winners comes into play for both debut winning MSW runners in from Lone Star Park: #7 TERRA TOWN did not earn as strong of a number though a B+ showed class/GRIT to overcome a less than ideal trip/post; #8 FINE FINISH also had herself to overcome racing GREEN and giving the field a headstart going a short 4.5f distance breaking SLOG and a WIDE MOVE. 

Trainer B. Colebrook often points to KEE and already sending out some live runners in a limited sample to start the fall meet, a trend that could continue with #1 KNICKS GLORY on debut. This one has a series of local works and worked with speed getting race ready in a key move watching the 10/3 work. #6 CAN'T DENY IT has done all of his preparation at Hawthorne picking KEE to debut. They were working locally in Cicero earlier this year with a setback noting the gap after the 24.2 move out of the gate on 6/6. Since then they have been back on track and likely could have found arguably a softer spot here at home and will take their chances out in KY. 

SYCAMORE STAKES (G3):

If #8 BIG BLUE LINE is no worse for the wear wheeling right back in 13-days for this race he is upgraded from an EX - EXCUSE and BTL effort stuck X_FLOW making a MOVE and GALLOP+ with a recorded 8th place effort something he can IMPROVE on. 

#10 OHANA HONOR appears pointed to this G3 event given the recent graded stakes efforts with the longer distances and holding his own though coming up short on the win end. He will find some subtle changes with the rider and post position something that could further intent. 

#4 DATAMAN could be flying under the radar for this race and not without a change. He has shown the ability to win races this season, subtle trips with competitive efforts in the two most recent despite finishing off the board. In addition he has progressed off his juvenile/sophomore figures (something of a question mark still for the capable and likely to be favored #11 BOLD ACT) as well as show some stamina required for these longer distance races. 

As noted in a prior analysis the success of the jockey trainer combination here at KEE in play for #7 CAPTIVE HEART. She wheels right back to make a second start and what appears the right intent with the class DROP from MSW company.

#12 WHAT'S HER NUMBER turned in a BTL effort on debut during the first part of the Oaklawn season though compromised with the class, distance and timing in the races that follow. They return here off the freshening and as one that showed she can run well off the bench looks well placed here at the MCL level to compete.

Another Hawthorne trip upgrade with #6 BAH HUMBUG out of the 9/15 event when stumbling out of the gate (TROUBLES+) then making a RUSH X_WIDE against a course profile (X_BIAS) favoring inside runners. They are going to change things up in surface/distance (class a lateral move) though the C. Davis barn has sent out some live runners as of late and already secured a win this meet.