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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat October 12th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 12:32 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 PARACLETE turned in a BTL effort last month at LRL racing X_FLOW and staying on with a game place finish. While the circuit switch comes into play, the par for this level is similar to the races that others exit with PARACLETE given the edge of the experienced group. 

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 1:04 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 GOT THUNDER returns under similar conditions and par from the CD event last month and all around looks to IMPROVE. The COLD barn and less than ideal rider TACTIC- played against them in addition to timing resetting their form cycle after the August MTH win.

#1 EDDIE M will look to pair wins and figures here in order to compete. They had recorded some fast races from time-to-time to support the 9/12 number. Placement could also suggest intent for a horse that would not be eligible for this condition without that race last out. 

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:16 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PARCHMENT PARTY does not "have to win" returning from the layoff though certainly capable of doing just that and a talented runner to follow. He showed raw ability breaking his maiden on debut with a BTL effort overcoming some adversity and recording a B+ OptixGRADE in the effort - a two turn initial start, a testament to class. He validated that effort pairing B+ efforts showing GRIT through adversity and improved his figure to suggest he could step up once again in that department with age and maturity. Hi Ira. 

Woodbine Race 4

Post Time 1:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 YOU BE THE JUDGE turned in a BTL effort under similar conditions back on 6/29 and return today with a freshening (48 days) and back to the preferred shorter sprint distance and the rider aboard for the BTL and maiden win, R. Munger. 

Woodbine Race 6

Post Time 3:03 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 GREAVETTE has a longshot look in this spot with some subtle changes (timing, distance) and her early speed which could be tough to catch. Following the stakes win in July, the connections attempted to route this SPRINTER and returning to a sprint last month was also back on the turf and longer distance though can be given a subtle "flow upgrade" part of the Fast early pace.